The Water Will Come

Jeff Goodell’s 2017 The Water Will Come: Rising Seas, Sinking Cities, and the Remaking of the Civilized World combines interviews, on-location reporting, historical research, and grim speculation to examine the global impact of sea-level rise. Goodell, a columnist for Rolling Stone magazine, spent several years collecting the information in this book, his third to address climate change. He talked with climate scientists, politicians, engineers, city planners, and flood victims. He toured the places on the planet most vulnerable to the inevitable onslaught of seawater. The resulting work of environmental journalism is an eye-opening, convincing call to action.

Florida’s cities Miami and Miami Beach get a good deal of attention in the book, starting with a fictional account of a how Miami, after a hurricane in 2037, turns into a popular destination for scuba-diving adventures. Following this cautionary tale, Goodell pivots to South Florida’s swampy past. Before the nineteenth century, when developers dredged up sand from the sea to make its beaches, South Florida was an inhospitable jungle. Transformed by “vacation ideology” into a commercially built-up coastline, most of it sits at less than six feet above high tide. Although dikes, or sea walls, might protect cities like New Orleans, this is no solution for South Florida. Beneath Miami is porous limestone, so floodwaters rise up from below ground.

Goodell acknowledges that sea levels have fluctuated throughout human – and geological – history. Indeed, the biblical story of Noah and his Ark may well be based on earlier stories, passed down orally across generations, about the great flooding that occurred when the last Ice Age thawed. According to researchers, sea-level rise occurs in spurts, or “pulses,” during which the oceans rise rapidly in a short stretch of time due to the sudden collapse of massive ice sheets.



Climate scientists believe that human-powered global warming is priming the planet for another such pulse. They point to the melting ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica as evidence. Goodell traveled to Greenland, and the book includes his explorations of the shrinking land ice.

When President Obama visited Alaska in 2015 to witness the effects of climate change in advance of the Paris Climate Accord talks, Goodell tagged along with the press corps and interviewed him. The president was well informed about the issue and appreciated its urgency, but maintained that, politically, there isn’t enough support to enact the aggressive policies needed to combat climate change.

Goodell also attended the 2015 Paris climate talks. The report from that meeting predicted a sea-level rise of three feet by 2100 and set targets for the reduction of fossil fuel use accordingly. However, those projections were too low. With the arctic ice sheets melting faster than earlier models predicted, many climate scientists now believe the sea will rise six or more feet by the twenty-second century if stronger measures aren’t taken.



While it’s still possible, with immediate and decisive action, to limit sea-level rise to a few feet, it’s too late to halt it entirely. “The water will come,” and Goodell details many of the dire consequences. Coastal cities will be swallowed by the sea, and US national security will be jeopardized, as Goodell’s conversation with Obama’s Secretary of State John Kerry reveals.

Kerry toured the largest Navy base in the world, located in Norfolk, Virginia. The facility is vital to American military operations, but sea levels along the Virginia coast are rising at twice the global average. If heavy rainfall occurs during high tide, the roads in and around the base already flood. Naval officers told Kerry that, within twenty to fifty years, the base would be too waterlogged to be functional. The only hope for the facility is to elevate the city of Norfolk, more than a billion dollar project. But that’s unlikely because, Goodell says, “Virginia’s Republican-dominated legislature has effectively banned the discussion of climate change.”

Some imperiled US cities are more proactive, investing in big engineering projects to defend against the inevitable deluge. After Hurricane Sandy in 2012, New York City officials approved the construction of a system of barriers around lower Manhattan to fend off future storm surges. Referred to as the “Big U,” the ten-foot wall will start to go up in 2019. Miami Beach is trying to adapt to the encroaching water, as well, by raising streets and installing pumps.



Goodell’s research also took him to Venice, Italy, the sinking city that experienced disastrous flooding in 1966. Fifty years later, Venice finally began building MOSE, a network of underwater gates designed to stop floodwaters. With a price tag of six billion dollars, the MOSE system will fail if the sea level rises more than two feet.

Goodell draws attention to the fact that impoverished nations – those that have contributed least to global warming – will suffer the most catastrophic consequences of sea levels rising. As they lack the wealth needed for large-scale engineering projects or infrastructure adaptations, these countries will experience massive population displacement. Goodell reports from Lagos, Nigeria, where desperate slum-dwellers have devised shacks that float when flooding occurs. By 2050, three to eight million Nigerians will be climate change refugees.

The outlook is bleak for the Marshall Islands, too. A concrete bunker full of radioactive waste is buried on one of these small Pacific islands, courtesy of the US military. When the rising sea overruns the island, the bunker, already cracked, will leak dangerous radiation into the environment. The supply of drinking water for Island residents will also be contaminated by seawater.



Goodell returns to Miami at the end of the book. The city thrives on real estate development, so talk of flooding is frowned upon. However, flooding is already happening more frequently, causing septic tanks to leach into the water and elevate fecal bacteria levels far above advised limits. Miami’s growth is unsustainable. According to Goodell, if sea levels rise six feet, one in eight Florida homes will be underwater. Many residents will have already left, however, because the cost of drinking water will skyrocket.

Goodell’s book is sobering. Without significant action soon, coastal residents around the world will have to move to higher ground or, like the Nigerian slum-dwellers, adapt to watery living conditions. Goodell’s takeaway message is also a warning: “If you’re not building a boat, then you don’t understand what’s happening here.”